It was two months ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
