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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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